Principal and Emerging Risks

Included in viability statement?

Yes

Risk owner:

Head of Treasury       

• Geopolitical tensions
• Macroeconomic conditions
• Governmnent responses to domestic and international conditions

• Financial losses and increased cost base
• Asset impairment
• Limitations on cash repatriation
  

• Maintain target, where feasible, of hedging 25-80% of rolling 12-month foreign currency exposures
• Use derivative investments and hard currency deposits to reduce exposures
• Close engagement with Financial Risk Management Committee and Audit and Risk Committee of the Board

Timeframe:

Short-medium

Strategic growth pillar:

2

Considered in double materiality assessment?

No

• Global growth for 2025 is expected at similar levels to 2024 with increased geopolitical volatility. The new US administration is expected to introduce further import tariffs on Chinese and European products, which are expected to drive inflation higher, and to be less predictable in its engagement with other countries, which may increase market volatility. We expect continuing FX volatility in key emerging markets, particularly Nigeria and Egypt.

Included in viability statement?

Yes

Risk owner:

Head of Strategic Finance       

• Challenging economic conditions
• Government resposes, particularly tased and interest rates
• Continuing geopolitical and macroeconomic volatility

• Volume and revenue decline
• Reduce profitability
• Increased commodity costs
  

• Pricing and targeted actions to drive mix to manage cost inflation
• Carefully managed operational expense and cost controls 
• Developed coordinated and targeted plans with TCCC and other business partners on promotions and marketing initiatives

Timeframe:

Short-medium

Strategic growth pillar:

3

Considered in double materiality assessment?

No

• The new US administation is expected to itroduce further import tariffs to Chinese and European products, which is expected to drive inflation up. Equally, the new administration is less predictable on the geopolitical-front and this may increase further makrte volatility

Included in viability statement?

Yes

Risk owner:

Chief Procurement Officer

• Geopolitical and macroeconomic conditions
• Financial speculation on global commodities markets
• Hard currency liquidity issues in emerging markets

• Increased input costs
• Inability to supply customers as a result of business interruption

• Expanded our supplier base and introduced new and alternative suppliers
• Detailed business continuity plans (BCP's) in plave per market and material
• Contracted volumes of key ingredients and packaging materials
• Contracted prices with focus on local currency wherever feasible 

Timeframe:

Short-medium

Strategic growth pillar:

2, 3, 5

Considered in double materiality assessment?

Yes

• We expect continuing pressure on commoty prices, energy prices and freight rates from Asia related to geopolital conditions, exacerbated by US threats to imkpose additional tariffs. Over the longer term, we expect climate change and related regulations to affec the supply side and cost of ingredients

Included in viability statement?

Yes

Risk owner:

Head of Legal Compliance    

• The Russia/Ukraine crisis and the international response.
• Potential for broadening of sanctions. 
• Tougher economic conditions that increase the risk of non-compliance

• Significant financial and criminial fines
• Litigation costs.
• Costs of remedies imposed by authorities in negative ruling. 
  

• Training on sanctions for targeted employees
• Sanctioning Policiy and Recusal Policy
• Russia and Belarus IT sytems separation to address impact of EU sanctions
• Internal investigation processes led by the audit department
• Enhanced third party screening 

Timeframe:

Short-medium term

Strategic growth pillar:

2, 5

Considered in double materiality assessment?

No

• Given the current geopolitical environment and the territories we operate within, we expect the risk to remain significant for the foreseeable future. We expect the international sanctions environment to remain complex in the short to medium term. 

Included in viability statement?

No

Risk owner:

Chief Information Security Officer 

• Increasing use of cloud-based IT solutions and working from home
• Increasing sophistication of malware and ransomware actors, use of AI
• Complex third-party ecosystem

• Operational disruptions and financial losses
• Damage to corporate reputation
• Data breaches and privacy violations

• Maintained ISO/IEC 27001 certification (Information Security Management Systems);
• Continue to strengthen our protection capabilities to secure applications, data, cloud, endpoints, identities and network
• Enhaanced cyber threat detection and incident response capabilities
• Simulated hacker attacks and vulnerability assessments, remediation of findings

Timeframe:

Short-medium

Strategic growth pillar:

2, 3

Considered in double materiality assessment?

Yes

• The number and sophistication of cyber incidents is expected to increase in the short to medium term. Stakeholder concerns about data privacy and requirements to protect it will continue to increase. Government agencies will continue to improve their capabilities to investigate and respond to cybercrime.

Included in viability statement?

No

Risk owner:

Chief Supply Chain Officer 

• Geopolitical instability
• Increasing frequency and severity of extreme weather events resulting from climate change
• Increasing risk of cyber attacks

• Impact on ability to deliver profitable growth
• Safety risk to employees
• Relationship with key customers in the event of inability to supply

• Requirement that all plants have BCPs consistent with new requirements by 2025
• Revisions of Business Interruption insurance cover to ensure we mitigate financial risk
• Business continuity plans based on robust Business Interruption Risk Assessment in every business unit for every plant
• Strengthen cyber security controls and response in plants

Timeframe:

Short-medium term

Strategic growth pillar:

2, 4

Considered in double materiality assessment?

No

• We expect continuing volatility in ingredients and raw material supply (short to medium). We will see an increase in the number and severity of extreme weather events as a result of climate change (medium to long term).

Included in viability statement?

No

Risk owner:

Chief Supply Chain Officer 

• Changes to suppliers and their processes
• Potential for human error
• Equipment or system failure
• Intentional acts

• Illness to consumer
• Adverse financial impact of events such as product withdrawals and recalls
• Reputational damage

• QFS capabilities through Quality Academy basic and advanced level implementation as part of Maturity Matrix programme
• Full implementation of CCH QFS prevention programmes
• QFS management system certification
• Elevated and risk-based supplier quality management
• Updated and tested product withdrawal and recall plans

Timeframe:

Short-medium term

Strategic growth pillar:

1, 2, 3, 5

Considered in double materiality assessment?

Yes

• We have continued to reduce the number of quality-related incidents over time however, we remain vigilant given the impact they can have on our business.

Included in viability statement?

Yes

Risk owner:

Chief Risk Officer

• Russia/Ukraine crisis
• Israel/Palestinian conflict and the potential for expansion
• New US government policies and approaches to its international relationships

• Safety of our people
• Financial impact of sanctions
• Supply chain instability

• Enhanced security risk assessments to better infrom management plans
• Improvement of emergency and contingency plans for affected markets
• Continuing IMCR development and training

Timeframe:

Short-medium

Strategic growth pillar:

2, 4

Considered in double materiality assessment?

No

• Continuing volatility over the medium to long term. Although we may see a cease-fire in 2025, we do not expect a lasting resolution of the Russia/Ukraine crisis in the short-term. The Israel/Palestine conflict is likely to continue in 2025, with a potential for anti-US sentiment and impact on supply chains and oil prices. Increasing influence of far right sentiment in Europe may have an impact on social cohesion.

Included in viability statement?

No

Risk owner:

Head of Quality, Safety and Environment

• Traffic conditions in selected countries
• Non-compliance with or breaches of health and safety (H&S) requirements
• Inadequate contractual provisions and/or behaviours of contractors

• Fatailities and/or serious injuries
• Damage to our reputation as a caring, responsible employer if not handled properly
• Financial losses

• Continued implementation of our Behavior Based Safety (BBS) programme, including human and organisational (HOP), across the organisation
• Compliance with LSR (Life Saving Rules) requirements
• Involved leaders on all levels in H&S observations and H&S conversations

Timeframe:

Short-medium term

Strategic growth pillar:

4, 5

Considered in double materiality assessment?

Yes

• We remain optimistic that our training and awareness programmes will continue to reduce fatilities and injuries.

Included in viability statement?

No

Risk owner:

Head of People Operations

• Expectations for flexible working arrangements
• Industry value proposition as an employer of choice
• Development of technology and online tools to enhance team engagement

• Failure to meet our goals
• High turnover in critical positions resulting in knowledge and productivity loss
• Potential imbalance between male and female employees

• Continuous listening to measure culture and engagement and address findings
• Improved people management skills to enhance engagement and energise employees sustainably, including how to manage remote teams
• Maintained our leadership development programme and continued to foster our coaching and mentoring culture

Timeframe:

Short-medium term

Strategic growth pillar:

4, 5

Considered in double materiality assessment?

No

• Talent retention will be an ongoing challenge over the short to medium term as adjustments are made to new ways or working. However, highly engaged and talented people are critical for our resilience and our investment in our workforce presents a significant opportunity for our business.

Included in viability statement?

Yes

Risk owner:

Head of Public & Regulatory Affairs

• Consumer concerns around health, environmental and social issues
• Government responses to health issues and budgetary pressures
• International initiatives/organisations promoting discriminatory measures

• Financial impact
• Forced changes in product formulations and portfolio mix.
• Impact on reputation and product affordability
  

• Montinor developemnts from leading health/political organisations
• Constructive engagement with key stakeholders to navigate possible tax/regulatory changes
• Continue  product inovation and expansion of 24/7 portfolio to respond to consumer needs, including expansion of no/low calorie beverages 

Timeframe:

Medium

Strategic growth pillar:

1,2,5

Considered in double materiality assessment?

Yes

• Heightening concerns around health into the medium to longer term. Increasingly demanding regulatory environment in the EU. Increasing budgetary pressures and policies to address consumer health concerns increase the risk of additional sugar/beverage taxes and regulations in the short term

Included in viability statement?

Yes

Risk owner:

Head of Sustainability

• Price dynamics of recycle-friendly raw materials such as rPET and aluminium 
• Collections rates in high plastic volume markets
• Access to quality feedstock
• New EU regulations on plastics and packaging waste

• Impact on reputation 
• Estimated increase in annual cost of packaging of 13.2% by 2030 and 2.2% by 2040 under a Paris Ambition (RCP1.9) climate scenario
• Increase in sales and profits by developing and profitable pack mix that resonates with consumers

• Continued implementing strategic initiatives to drive circularity
• Increasing percentage of recycled materials and reusable packs
• Partnering with regulatory authorities, industry peers, start-ups and NGOs to develop effective package recovery systems
• Identifying new technologies and innovation, focusing on new and alternative packaging solutions such as packageless and refillables recycling to improve packaging carbon footprint and reduce waste

Timeframe:

Medium-long term

Strategic growth pillar:

1,2,3,5

Considered in double materiality assessment?

Yes

• We will continue to see heightened stakeholder concerns over the medium term and increased regulation across EU markets. The price of good quality recycled material will continue to rise over the medium term as industries focus on increasing recycled content.

Included in viability statement?

Yes

Risk owner:

Head of QSE

• Increasing pressure tp reduce emissions and transparency on our actions and targets
• Complexity of managing business growth while reducing emissions
• Legal requirements linking sustainability with financial reporting and investments
• Increasing use of carbon taxes and trading schemes to reduce carbon emissions 

• Impact of the environment and our reputation
• Estimated annual cost of scope 1 and 2 emissions of €25.5m by 2030 reducing to €9.3m by 2040 under and RCP4.5 scenario
• Significant capital expenditure over the longer term to fuind carbon reduction initiatives

• Implemented actions guided by NetZeroby40 transition plans, including mitigation and adaptation plans
• Stress tested adaptation plans against multiple climate scenarios 
• Embedded climate change response into all business continutiy plans
• Enhaned public transparency and communication of climate change risjs and adaptation plans

Timeframe:

Medium - long term

Strategic growth pillar:

3,5

Considered in double materiality assessment?

Yes

• We expect that consumer, customer and regulatory pressure will continue to increase and apply pressure on all companies to reduce their carbon footprint. We expect there will be increased scunity on our sustainability initiatives from regulators and non-government organisations.

Included in viability statement?

Yes

Risk owner:

Head of QSE

• Increased water stress in eight countries due to climate change under multiple climate scenarios
• Local community needs for clean water, particularly in areas of water stress 
• Increased regulatory pressure, including imposition of taxes and levies

• Climate change may increase the level of water stress on 29 plants, with estimated significant impact on 20 plants under an RCP4.5 climate scenario and 17 plants under an RCP8.5 climate scenario
• Climate change is unlikely to materially increase the annual cost of water; however, we estimate that we will need to invest up to an additional €68.4m in Capex by 2030 and up to another additional €99.3m in the period 2031-2040 in water infrastructure to ensure sufficient availability for production and to support local community needs
• Damage to our reputation

• Water usage reduction plans across our operations
• Water stewardship programmes in water priority locations to mitigate shared water risks 
• Updated source vulnerability assessments for all plants and enhanced our plans, including identification of additional capital expenditure required for enhancing infrastructure
• Focus on water treatment innovative technologies for water priority locations
• Integrated environmental KPIs monitoring and reporting for all plants
• Investment in enhancing water infrastructure

Timeframe:

Long term

Strategic growth pillar:

3, 5

Considered in double materiality assessment?

Yes

• Water stress in our water priority locations is likely to increase as a result of climate change. The extent of that increase will depend both on our actions and on the global response to climate change.

Included in viability statement?

Yes

Risk owner:

Chief Supply Chain Officer

• Changing weather patterns
• Government and other organisation’s responses to climate change

• Disruption to our production and distribution, and inability to supply our customers
• Increased insurance premiums (estimated at additional €2.05m annually by 2050 under an RCP4.5 climate scenario)
• Inability to insure higher-risk properties
• Additional Capex of €6.8m to mitigate the impact and/or implement adaptation plans as a direct result of climate change

• Estimates of weather pattern changes over the medium to long term
• International organisation and government responses to indicate most likely climate scenarios
• Insurance industry outlook
• National government responses to climate change

Timeframe:

Medium-long term

Strategic growth pillar:

3

Considered in double materiality assessment?

Yes

• Planned Capex to reduce risk of extreme weather events, enhancement of our business continuity programme.

Included in viability statement?

No

Risk owner:

Chief Procurement Officer

• Changing weather patterns
• Government and other organisation’s responses to climate change

• Disruption to our production capabilities if we cannot obtain sufficient quantities of key ingredients
• Estimated increased annual costs of key ingredients by 9.2% by 2030 and 1.3% by 2040 under an RCP1.9 climate scenario
• Estimated increased annual costs of key ingredients by 4.4% by 2030 and 0.5% by 2040 under an RCP4.5 climate scenario

• Estimates of weather pattern changes over the medium to long term
• International organisation and government responses to indicate most likely climate scenarios
• Insurance industry outlook
• National government responses to climate change

Timeframe:

Long term

Strategic growth pillar:

2, 5

Considered in double materiality assessment?

Yes

• Close collaboration with our suppliers to understand and, where appropriate, assist with potential changes in crop yields, broadening of supplier base and identification of suppliers/growing regions that may be positively impacted.

Included in viability statement?

No

Risk owner:

Chief Information Security Officer

• Technological development, particularly in AI
• Level and effectiveness of government regulations and guard rails

• Reputation damage
• Management effort and potential legal costs
• Privacy and data security concerns

• Technological development in AI
• Investment levels
• Governments/international organisations moves to impose regulation

Timeframe:

Medium-long term

Strategic growth pillar:

2

Considered in double materiality assessment?

No

• Development of internal policies, standards and guidelines on use of AI. Development of governance model overseen by cross-functional team and training for employees on safe and secure use of AI.

Included in viability statement?

No

Risk owner:

Head of International Key Accounts

• Consumer demand for convenience
• Technological advances in e-commerce and data analytics

• Risk to market share and revenue if we don’t adapt quickly enough to providing real-time data and support for multiple sales channels
• Opportunity associated with building an effective omni-channel strategy

• Retail customers’ focus on their omni-channel strategy
• Consumer responses to different retail strategies
• Growth of online only vs multi-channel retailers

Timeframe:

Medium-long term

Strategic growth pillar:

1, 2, 3

Considered in double materiality assessment?

No

• Enhance analysis to monitor change and identify gaps in capability, International key account strategies to have omni-channel focus, Engagement with retail customers and use of data to leverage opportunities for our customers and ourselves.

Included in viability statement?

No

Risk owner:

Head of Sustainability

• Consumer concerns about environmental issues
• Greater scrutiny of our environmental performance

• Positive or negative impact on our reputation, which leads to actual increase/decrease in sales

• Changes to our ‘e-score’ relative to other companies in the food and beverage industry
• Translation of ‘e-score’ to sales

Timeframe:

Medium-long term

Strategic growth pillar:

3, 5

Considered in double materiality assessment?

Yes

• Close monitoring of consumer perceptions, adjustment of sustainability strategy where appropriate.